Subhead:This referendum is nominally about independence. That’s true. But it’s also the biggest, loudest way to hit back at Ottawa in a way they’ll never forget.#
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Our third-party campaign group, Act For Alberta, just commissioned a massive public opinion poll on Alberta’s independence referendum, with a whopping 3,000-person sample size.
Let me tell you what it says: the good, the bad and the ugly. And I’ll tell it to you straight.
Here’s the most striking finding: if the referendum were held today, it would fail.
Only 35% of Albertans support independence — and 56% oppose it.
That’s an uphill battle, for sure. But it’s not impossible. Quebec’s separatists started their 1995 campaign 20 points behind and nearly won. Britain’s “remain” side led almost the entire Brexit campaign, but on referendum day, Brits voted to leave.
Six months is a lifetime for a political campaign.
So why is overall support for an independence vote so weak?
I think one reason is that good people have legitimate questions, like: what about the Canada Pension Plan? What about freedom to travel to other parts of Canada? Those kinds of questions haven’t been answered. The objections haven’t been overcome — but they could be.
Another problem is, the pro-Ottawa side has a lot of high-powered communicators on the payroll — the CBC, the NDP, and most of the political establishment. People like Thomas Lukaszuk, Jason Kenney and Naheed Nenshi. They’re lifelong politicians.
But who has led the “yes” side of the campaign? Grassroots, volunteer organizers have done a great job getting petitions signed. But they haven’t crafted a message that reaches beyond the rural, conservative political base of the province.
They’re normal, busy people — not professional pundits. And the media has managed to demonize independence voters as “extremists”, a typical leftist tactic.
The challenge is to persuade another 15% or 20% of people to support independence. And our new poll suggests that means different messages. And probably different messengers, too.
Here’s an example from our poll. Only 35% of Albertans say they support independence. But 50% of Albertans believe the province is being treated unfairly by Ottawa. They know the system is rigged.
